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<p>Watermark: Fire Safety Academy logo icon, 70 px, 45 % opacity</p> <p><b>New page</b></p><div>== Summary ==<br /> Monte Carlo estimates of the cable failure probability from the worked example, with 95 % error bars, against the exact value of 0.286. Based on Stroup et al. (2016), pp. 6-3–6-4 and 6-57, and Hall (2002a), p. 1-190.<br /> <br /> Original illustration for [[Monte Carlo simulation]], level 4 Expert.<br /> <br /> * Source basis: Stroup et al. (2016), pp. 6-3–6-4 and 6-57 (example and validation statistics); Hall (2002a), p. 1-190 (binomial variance used for the error bars); Phillips (2002), pp. 5-120–5-121 (sampling by inverse transformation)<br /> * Alt text: Four estimates of a failure probability at 100 to 100,000 runs with shrinking error bars around a horizontal line at 0.286.<br /> <br /> == Licensing ==<br /> New drawing by Fire Safety Academy. © Fire Safety Academy.</div>

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